Envisioning Desirable Futures for Coral Reefs

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY

Coral reefs are vital social-ecological systems, yet they are highly vulnerable to global change. By mid-century, global warming projections suggest that coral reefs will be approaching the brink of biophysical collapse, placing both the species they support and the human communities that depend on them under existential threat. While it is essential to convey this urgency, bleak outlooks can become self-reinforcing, potentially undermining the capacity to act. To counter this, experts working on coral reefs across diverse geographies engaged in a structured visioning process to imagine desirable futures for coral reef systems. The focus was on crafting desirable visions that are not necessarily tied to any one location or moment in time, but are relatable and adaptable across diverse coral reef social-ecological contexts. These visions aim to alleviate feelings of helplessness, facilitate inter-sectoral dialogue between diverse coral reef actors, and hopefully mobilise the diverse range of capacities essential to imagining and enacting transformative change for safe and just coral reef futures.

THE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH IN BRIEF

The narratives and artworks shown here are based on a structured visioning process using Seeds of Good Anthropocenes Manoa Mash-up method and the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). The former uses existing initiatives as starting points for scenario development and leverages graphical approaches (e.g., 3HF) to explore the change in importance of issues over time, connecting desirable futures to the present. The latter is a tool that supports the creation of scenarios and models that reflect diverse, desirable futures for both people and nature. The NFF is grounded in three value perspectives: Nature for Nature (NfN), Nature for Society (NfS), and Nature as Culture (NaC), representing intrinsic, instrumental, and relational values between people and nature, respectively.

From the visioning process, three distinct but complementary visions and storylines were developed: Reeftopia, Project Reefoir, and The Bay Revolution. To bring these desirable futures to life, a subset of co-authors, including experts in science-fiction prototyping and storytelling, iteratively refined the narratives into richer, more immersive storylines. Artist Kim Yip Tong further refined the storylines and embodied these visions into art pieces. Her process involved deep engagement with the project’s process and goals, collaborative meetings with the scientific team, and creative freedom grounded in coherence with each envisioned future.

THE VISIONS

The three desirable futures developed are: Reeftopia, Project Reefoir, and The Bay Revolution. Each of these visions reflects a different combination of human–nature relationships, as well as a rich diversity of contexts, scales, time horizons, and transformative events. Reeftopia balances NfN and NfS, highlighting the intrinsic worth of nature alongside its non-material contributions to human well-being. Project Reefoir merges NaC and NfN, illustrating how cultural heritage and intrinsic values can coexist and reinforce each other. The Bay Revolution weaves together NfS and NaC, combining sustainable use with community tenure rights and the pursuit of sovereign futures. 

These futures do not aim to replicate the historical biodiversity of coral reefs, but rather embrace the uncertainties and challenges that coral reefs and dependent communities are already facing and are likely to face more intensely in the future.

SITUATED REFLECTION: THE ARTIST’S PERSPECTIVE 

Every time I snorkel on the reef, I’m both amazed and profoundly saddened. Every year witnesses a cycle of depletion and rebound, with corals dying during the summer months and partly regrowing during winter. Each year, I hope that the next won’t be as bad. Over time, I’ve developed little rituals. I speak to the reef, in my heart, I tell the corals to be strong, to hold on, that we’re working on it, and that things will get better. I imagine having superpowers, stretching my arms out to heal them. I’ve often promised myself that I’ll use my magic, my art, to do all I can to prevent these wonderful places from disappearing. I guess this project came as a response. I feel grateful and empowered by the many people investing their energy towards this goal, and I hope these stories and artworks will inspire many more. See more of my work on my website here.

CREDITS

The text of these stories is the copyright of Ignacio Gianelli, Laura Pereira, Andrew Merrie, and Kim Yip Tong. The artwork and associated imagery are the copyright of Kim Yip Tong. 

FUNDING

The research that underlies the storylines and artworks was funded by Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL (SYNERGY project) and partly by the Future Ecosystems for African Programme at the University of the Witwatersrand in conjunction with Oppenheimer Generations Research and Conservation. The Wildlife Conservation Society provided funding for the art-science collaboration and the realization of the artworks.